Unlocking EU enlargement Balkans: A MUN Delegate's Guide

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The whole story of EU enlargement in the Balkans started with a clear, firm promise of membership. Since then, it’s become a narrative defined by sluggish progress, major geopolitical shifts, and, more recently, a sense of renewed urgency. For the nations of the Western Balkans, this path is both a symbol of hope for a stable future and a massive source of frustration.

The Long Road From Thessaloniki to Today

Think of the relationship between the EU and the Western Balkans as a long, winding road trip. The journey kicked off with a huge dose of optimism at the 2003 Thessaloniki Summit. This was a landmark moment when the EU stated, in no uncertain terms, that the future of the region was inside the Union. This wasn't just flowery language; it was the EU’s core strategy to export peace and democracy to a region torn apart by the Yugoslav wars of the 1990s.

In the beginning, you could feel the excitement. Enlargement was seen as the EU’s single most effective foreign policy tool. It was a powerful incentive for former enemies to get on board with democratic reforms, the rule of law, and working together. The logic was straightforward: dangle the ultimate prize of membership, and aspiring countries will naturally reshape their political and economic systems to match European standards.

A Tale of Two Speeds

But the journey hasn't been the same for everyone. Slovenia jumped on board during the "big bang" enlargement of 2004, and Croatia made it across the finish line in 2013. For the other six nations, however, progress has been painfully slow. This sharp contrast points to a huge challenge that cropped up within the EU itself: enlargement fatigue. After bringing in ten new members in 2004, some EU states got cold feet, worrying about the costs of integration and whether the bloc could actually absorb more countries, especially those wrestling with deep-seated political and economic problems.

This slowdown created a really frustrating situation. The candidate countries felt like the goalposts were always shifting. At the same time, the EU was getting tired of the slow pace of reform on the ground, particularly when it came to fighting corruption and ensuring the courts were truly independent.

A Geopolitical Wake-Up Call

This long period of stagnation was brought to an abrupt end by events happening elsewhere. Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was a massive wake-up call for Brussels. The conflict was a stark reminder that leaving a strategic "grey zone" in its own backyard was a major security risk.

All of a sudden, the debate around EU enlargement in the Balkans was seen in a new light. It was no longer just a technical, bureaucratic exercise; it was a crucial geopolitical necessity. The need to anchor the Western Balkans firmly into the Euro-Atlantic community became much more urgent, creating fresh momentum.

A Strategic Must-Do: Keeping rival powers like Russia and China from gaining more influence in the region shot to the top of the priority list.

Renewed Focus: The EU rolled out new initiatives, like the Growth Plan, designed to speed up economic alignment and deliver real benefits to citizens long before full membership is achieved.

Political Will: Key EU leaders started talking about enlargement not as a problem, but as a strategic investment in the continent's long-term security and stability.

For any MUN delegate, getting a handle on this history is absolutely essential. The current debate is a messy, complicated mix of the original idealism from Thessaloniki, the deep-seated frustrations built up over two decades of slow progress, and the new strategic thinking forced by a rapidly changing world.

How Countries Actually Join The EU

Getting into the European Union isn't a simple handshake deal. It’s more like an endurance race—a long, rigorous process designed to make sure any new member can fully adopt the EU's extensive body of rules, values, and economic standards.

The whole thing kicks off when a country officially applies for membership. This application lands on the desk of the European Commission, which acts as the initial gatekeeper. The Commission meticulously assesses whether the applicant meets the foundational Copenhagen criteria—the non-negotiable standards for democracy, human rights, a functioning market economy, and the administrative muscle to handle EU membership.

If the Commission gives a thumbs-up, the file moves to the European Council. This is where the heads of state of all current EU members must unanimously agree to grant the country ‘candidate status’. It's a huge political step, but it's only the beginning.

Navigating the 35 Chapters

Once a nation is officially a candidate, the real marathon begins. The next crucial hurdle is another unanimous decision by the Council, this time to formally open accession negotiations. This is where the nitty-gritty work of aligning with EU law—the acquis communautaire—truly gets underway.

This entire body of law is broken down into 35 policy areas, or ‘chapters’. Each chapter covers a specific domain, from environmental protection and financial control to justice reform and agricultural policy. The candidate country has to adopt, implement, and enforce every single EU regulation within all 35 of these chapters. It’s a monumental task that often requires a complete overhaul of a country's legal and administrative systems.

The journey for the Western Balkans has been a particularly long one, marked by years of promise followed by frustrating delays, as this timeline shows.

As you can see, the long waiting game has defined the EU enlargement Balkans process for years, though recent geopolitical shifts have injected a new sense of urgency into the timeline.

To give you a clearer picture of this complex journey, here's a simplified breakdown of the stages.

Stages of EU Accession: A Simplified Timeline

This table outlines the core steps a country must complete on its path to joining the European Union.

Stage	Key Action	Primary EU Body Involved	Outcome
1. Application	Country submits formal application to join the EU.	European Commission	Commission provides an opinion on the country's readiness.
2. Candidacy	All 27 EU member states must unanimously agree to grant candidate status.	European Council	Country officially becomes a "candidate" for membership.
3. Negotiations	Unanimous agreement to start talks; country works to adopt EU law across 35 chapters.	Council of the EU, European Commission	Chapters are "opened" and "closed" as the country proves compliance.
4. Accession Treaty	After all chapters are closed, a treaty is drafted and signed.	All EU Institutions & Member States	The treaty outlines the terms of the country's membership.
5. Ratification	The treaty is ratified by the candidate country and every single EU member state.	National Parliaments	The country formally becomes a member of the European Union.

This step-by-step process shows just how many hurdles a country must clear, each requiring consensus and proven reform.

Who Calls the Shots?

Several EU institutions have distinct roles throughout this marathon. Think of them as the key players in a very high-stakes game:

The European Commission (The Coach): The Commission is the on-the-ground guide. It monitors the candidate’s progress, provides technical help, and writes regular reports. Crucially, it recommends when to open or close negotiating chapters, but it doesn't have the final say.

The Council of the EU (The Gatekeepers): This is where the real power lies. Made up of ministers from all 27 member states, the Council must unanimously agree to open negotiations, close each of the 35 chapters, and ultimately approve the final accession treaty. A single "no" from any country can bring the entire process to a grinding halt.

The European Parliament (The Watchdog): While it doesn't get a vote on individual chapters, the Parliament keeps a close eye on the negotiations. Its most important role comes at the very end, when it must give its consent to the final accession treaty. Without its approval, no country can join.

Only when every chapter is successfully closed, an accession treaty is signed, and that treaty is ratified by the candidate country and every single EU member state, can the nation finally join the club. This incredibly detailed and politically sensitive path is why the journey to EU membership often takes well over a decade. The financial strain of these reforms is also immense, a topic we explore further in our guide to debt and deficits in emerging markets.

Where Each Balkan Nation Stands Today

The journey toward EU membership isn’t a one-size-fits-all process. Think of it less as a single highway and more as six separate trails leading to the same summit. Each of the Western Balkan nations is on its own path, facing unique obstacles and moving at a different pace.

To really get a grip on the situation, you have to look past the official labels like "candidate" or "potential candidate." The real story is in the details of their progress. For any MUN delegate, understanding these nuances is what separates a generic speech from a winning, country-specific strategy. If you want to dig deeper into that, our guide on how to build a MUN country profile is a great place to start.

Montenegro: The Frontrunner

By most accounts, Montenegro is at the head of the pack in the EU enlargement Balkans race. It jumped into accession negotiations way back in 2012. Since then, it has managed to open all 33 negotiable chapters and has even provisionally closed three. A big win for Montenegro has been its complete alignment with the EU’s foreign policy, especially its backing of sanctions against Russia, which has earned it major points in Brussels.

But don't let that fool you—it hasn't been smooth sailing. Years of political infighting and deep social divisions have slowed things down considerably. The biggest remaining roadblock is the rule of law. The EU has its eyes glued on Chapters 23 (Judiciary and Fundamental Rights) and 24 (Justice, Freedom, and Security), waiting to see if Montenegro's government can finally deliver the tough reforms needed to tackle corruption and organized crime.

Serbia: The Regional Powerhouse

As the largest economy in the Western Balkans, Serbia's integration into the EU is seen as a linchpin for the entire region's stability. The country officially kicked off its accession talks in 2014, and has since opened 22 of its 35 chapters, closing two.

Serbia's journey, however, comes with a massive complication: its relationship with Kosovo. Brussels has been crystal clear that any real progress is tied directly to the "comprehensive normalization of relations" through the EU-led dialogue. This issue looms over everything else. On top of that, Serbia’s refusal to join EU sanctions against Russia has created some serious friction, making many in Europe question where its long-term loyalties truly lie.

Albania and North Macedonia: The Tandem Journey

Albania and North Macedonia have been moving more or less in lockstep. After years of frustrating delays, both countries officially began their negotiations in 2022. This was a huge step, especially for North Macedonia, which was first held up for years by Greece over its name and then by Bulgaria over disputes about history and language.

The challenge for both is to keep the momentum going.

Albania: is under intense pressure to show real, measurable results in its fight against corruption and organized crime—two areas the EU watches like a hawk.

North Macedonia: is stuck on a major political hurdle. It needs to amend its constitution to officially recognize its Bulgarian minority, a condition from Sofia that is proving incredibly difficult to get through its parliament.

This situation perfectly illustrates how a bilateral issue with a single EU member state can bring the entire enlargement process for a candidate country to a grinding halt.

Bosnia and Herzegovina: The Complex Case

Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) is arguably the most politically complicated case of all. It was granted candidate status in December 2022 and got the green light to open negotiations in March 2024, but this came with a long list of strings attached. The country's incredibly decentralized government, a direct result of the Dayton Accords, makes passing nationwide reforms a monumental task.

The EU has laid out 14 key priorities that BiH must address, covering everything from constitutional and electoral reform to modernizing public administration and shoring up the rule of law. To make matters worse, ongoing secessionist threats from leaders in Republika Srpska, one of the country's two entities, constantly undermine its stability and its European ambitions.

Kosovo: The Aspiration

Kosovo's path is entirely unique, mainly because five EU members (Spain, Slovakia, Cyprus, Romania, and Greece) still don't recognize it as an independent country. While it formally applied for EU membership in December 2022, it's officially considered a "potential candidate."

Just like Serbia, its biggest roadblock is the dialogue to normalize relations. A huge win came in January 2024 when its citizens were granted visa-free travel to the Schengen Area—a concrete benefit that people can feel. Still, until the non-recognition issue is sorted out and a deal is reached with Serbia, the path to even gaining official candidate status will remain blocked.

The EU's New €6 Billion Growth Plan

For years, the EU's approach to enlargement felt stuck. The "all or nothing" model, where candidate countries had to wait indefinitely for the full benefits of membership, was losing its appeal. In the Western Balkans, reform efforts were hitting a wall and public enthusiasm was starting to fade. It was clear a new strategy was needed.

This frustration led to a major policy pivot. Instead of forcing countries to wait for the entire "menu" of EU membership, Brussels decided to start serving up some of the benefits 'a la carte'. The goal is to bring real, tangible improvements to people's lives in the Western Balkans now, not in some distant future.

A New Deal for the Western Balkans

The heart of this fresh approach is the Growth Plan for the Western Balkans. When the European Commission announced it, this wasn't just another funding announcement; it marked one of the biggest shifts in thinking about the EU enlargement Balkans process in a generation. It’s a whole new philosophy for integration.

The plan is designed to tackle two problems at once:

Jumpstart economic growth in the Western Balkans to start closing the huge development gap with the rest of the EU.

Speed up crucial reforms by making the money conditional on actual progress.

This two-pronged attack aims to create a virtuous cycle. As economies improve, the political will to tackle difficult but necessary reforms gets stronger.

The economic divide is stark. The Growth Plan is a direct response to the reality that the Western Balkans' economies are, on average, only at about one-third of the EU's per capita income. Bridging this gap is essential for successful integration.

Western Balkans vs EU Economic Snapshot (2023 Data)

This table compares key economic indicators of the Western Balkan nations against selected EU members, highlighting the economic gap the Growth Plan aims to bridge.

Country	GDP per Capita (PPP, USD)	Average Annual GDP Growth (2003-2023)
Montenegro	$26,200	3.2%
Serbia	$25,900	3.5%
North Macedonia	$20,200	2.6%
Bosnia & Herzegovina	$18,800	3.3%
Albania	$19,400	3.7%
Kosovo	$15,500	4.9%
EU-27 Average	$58,100	1.5%
Germany	$66,000	1.2%
Romania	$41,900	3.8%

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2023)

While the Western Balkan nations have shown stronger growth rates over the past two decades, their starting point was much lower. The plan’s financial injection is designed to accelerate this convergence, making their economies more resilient and prepared for full EU membership.

How the €6 Billion Fund Works

The plan comes with a serious financial commitment: €6 billion set aside for the 2024-2027 period. The money is split into two distinct pots.

€2 billion in non-repayable grants: Think of this as direct cash support to fuel investment and help countries implement their reform agendas.

€4 billion in highly favorable loans: These are designed to help governments fund big-ticket items like infrastructure projects that will create jobs and stimulate the economy long-term.

But this money isn't a blank check. Access to the funds is governed by a strict "more for more" principle. Countries that push ahead with their reforms get more funding. Those that fall behind risk having their payments frozen. It's a powerful and direct incentive to get things done. This approach also syncs up with wider EU priorities, as we've covered in our analysis of sustainable development goals financing.

Unlocking the Single Market

What really makes the Growth Plan a potential game-changer is its offer of gradual access to the EU's Single Market. This is a huge deal, giving countries some of the core economic perks of membership long before they officially join.

The European Commission officially launched this €6 billion plan on November 8, 2023. It’s set up to give Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia early entry into key single market areas. For instance, including them in the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA) means that sending money across borders becomes as cheap and fast as a domestic transfer. This is a concrete win that businesses and ordinary citizens will feel right away. For a broader overview, you can find more insights on the potential enlargement of the EU on Wikipedia.

To get their hands on this money and market access, each country has to commit to a specific Reform Agenda built around four pillars:

Joining the EU Single Market: Tearing down barriers to trade, services, and capital flows.

Deepening Regional Economic Integration: Building a Common Regional Market between the six Balkan nations themselves.

Accelerating Fundamental Reforms: Making real progress on the rule of law, democracy, and fighting corruption.

Boosting Economic Growth: Focusing on the green and digital transitions.

For any MUN delegate, this plan is a gift. It gives you a pragmatic, ready-made policy proposal for your speeches and resolutions on the future of EU enlargement in the Balkans, moving the debate beyond old arguments and toward constructive solutions.

The Geopolitical Tug-Of-War in the Balkans

The slow march of EU enlargement in the Balkans has created a power vacuum, and as any student of history knows, vacuums don't stay empty for long. While Brussels has been methodically focused on technical reforms, other global players have been playing an entirely different game. They've turned the region into a modern-day chessboard where influence is the ultimate prize.

For any MUN delegate, it's absolutely essential to see the bigger picture. The accession debate isn't just happening in a bubble. It's a high-stakes geopolitical contest where powerful external actors—namely Russia, China, and Turkey—are all working to pull the Western Balkans into their respective orbits. This tug-of-war changes the narrative from a dry administrative process to a gripping story about European security and shifting global power.

Russia: The Historical Ally

Russia’s playbook in the Balkans is written on a foundation of deep historical, cultural, and religious ties. It expertly plays up its shared Slavic and Orthodox heritage, especially in countries like Serbia and Montenegro, to cast itself as a traditional protector standing against Western influence.

But let's be clear: Moscow’s primary goal isn't to offer a real alternative to the EU. It's to be a spoiler. It actively works to discredit the EU and NATO, stoke internal divisions, and slam the brakes on the integration process.

Russia's key tactics are quite straightforward:

Energy Dependence: Wielding its role as a major energy supplier to create political leverage.

Disinformation Campaigns: Spreading anti-EU and anti-Western narratives through state-backed media and social media trolls.

Political Support: Offering diplomatic cover on sensitive topics, most notably by backing Serbia on the Kosovo issue at the UN Security Council.

This strategy cleverly exploits local frustrations and historical loyalties to keep the region in a state of geopolitical limbo. The end goal? Making it that much harder for the EU to build a stable, unified neighborhood.

China: The Economic Powerhouse

China plays a completely different game. Its influence isn't about shared history; it's all about raw economic ambition, delivered through its flagship Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Beijing positions itself as a no-nonsense partner that can deliver what the EU often struggles with: fast, massive infrastructure projects with few, if any, strings attached when it comes to democracy or rule of law.

Across the region, Chinese state-owned companies are building highways, bridges, and power plants, all financed by huge loans from Chinese banks. While these projects fill genuine infrastructure gaps, they come with a hefty price tag that isn't just financial.

The risks are significant:

Debt-Trap Diplomacy: Nations can find themselves buried under unsustainable debt, handing Beijing enormous economic leverage. A prime example is the $1 billion highway project that left Montenegro deeply indebted to China's Exim Bank.

Erosion of Standards: These projects often sidestep EU standards on public procurement, environmental safety, and labor rights, directly undermining the very reforms Brussels is pushing for.

Political Inroads: Economic dependence is a slippery slope to political influence. Governments become much less likely to criticize Beijing on human rights or other sensitive issues when they owe it billions.

Turkey: The Cultural Cousin

Turkey's approach is a deft mix of cultural diplomacy, economic investment, and political outreach. Tapping into a shared Ottoman past, Ankara has poured money into restoring mosques and historical sites, funding schools, and broadcasting Turkish TV shows to boost its soft power.

At the same time, Turkish businesses have become major players, investing heavily in sectors like banking, construction, and manufacturing. Politically, Turkey nurtures strong relationships with Bosniak and Albanian communities, presenting itself as a "brotherly nation" and a reliable partner. While its influence is far less confrontational than Russia's, it provides yet another alternative for countries growing weary of the EU's slow and demanding process.

For the EU, this crowded geopolitical stage makes a powerful case for speeding up the EU enlargement Balkans process. The longer Brussels leaves the door to full membership only slightly ajar, the more time and space it gives rival powers to sink their roots deep into the region—potentially pulling it in directions that clash with Europe's own interests and values.

Your MUN Playbook for the Balkans Debate

Walking into a Model UN committee on EU enlargement in the Balkans requires more than just a list of facts—it demands a strategic playbook. Think of this as your guide to crafting winning arguments, delivering powerful speeches, and finding the best research to make you an authority in the room.

Whether you're assigned to champion the cause of a Balkan nation or voice the concerns of a skeptical EU member, your first job is to master the core arguments. These frameworks are your foundation for building a solid position and forging key alliances.

Arguing for the Pro-Enlargement Bloc

If you're representing a candidate country, a pro-enlargement EU member like Germany or Poland, or an observer like the United States, your strategy should revolve around the big picture: stability, security, and shared prosperity. Your goal is to frame enlargement as a strategic win for everyone involved.

Here are your go-to talking points:

The Geopolitical Imperative: Position enlargement as the only realistic way to anchor the Balkans firmly in the West and counter growing Russian and Chinese influence. A stable, integrated Balkans means a more secure Europe—it's that simple.

An Economic Win-Win: Talk about the untapped potential of bringing nearly 20 million new consumers into the Single Market. This isn't charity; it's a massive opportunity for new supply chains, investments, and mutual growth.

The EU's Credibility is on the Line: Drive home the point that the EU made a promise back in 2003 at the Thessaloniki summit. Backing away now doesn't just disappoint the Balkans; it erodes the EU's reputation as a reliable global partner.

A Proven Blueprint for Peace: Remind the committee of the EU's track record. Enlargement was the engine that transformed Central and Eastern Europe after the Cold War, fostering reconciliation and cementing democracy. Why would the Balkans be any different?

Arguing for the Skeptical Bloc

If you’re representing a more cautious EU member like France or the Netherlands, your job isn't to be a hard "no." It's to be the voice of reason, ensuring that the EU doesn't expand at the cost of its own integrity. Your focus should be on standards, readiness, and protecting the Union itself.

Raise your concerns with these critical arguments:

Deep-Seated Rule of Law Problems: Point directly to the persistent challenges with corruption, organized crime, and a lack of judicial independence in the region. Insist that membership can only follow concrete, irreversible reforms—not just promises of them.

The EU's Own "Absorption Capacity": Ask the tough questions. Can the EU, in its current form, even handle new members without grinding to a halt? Argue that internal reforms, like rethinking the unanimity rule in foreign policy, must come first.

Don't Import Frozen Conflicts: Highlight the danger of unresolved bilateral issues, especially the Serbia-Kosovo dialogue. Allowing new members to join before solving these problems means importing gridlock and instability directly into the EU's decision-making bodies.

The Financial Realities: Raise practical questions about the economic burden. Integrating less-developed economies will put a significant strain on the EU's cohesion funds, and it's fair to ask who will pay for it and how.

Here are a couple of adaptable openings to get you started:

For a Candidate Country (e.g., Montenegro): "Honorable Chair, fellow delegates, for two decades, my nation has walked the path of reform, our eyes fixed on the European promise made to us. We have aligned our foreign policy with Brussels, reformed our institutions, and embraced European values as our own. The question before us today is not whether we are ready for Europe, but whether Europe is ready to honor its commitment and finally welcome us home."

For a Skeptical EU Member (e.g., France): "Honorable Chair, the European Union is far more than a single market; it is a community built on shared values. While we absolutely reaffirm the European future of the Western Balkans, let us be clear: membership is earned, not simply granted. Tangible, irreversible progress on the rule of law is non-negotiable—for the health of the candidate countries and for the very future of our Union."

Top-Tier Sources for Your Research

To truly stand out, you need to go beyond Wikipedia. Digging into primary sources and expert analysis will give you the data and nuance to dominate the debate.

European Commission Enlargement Reports: These are the official annual "report cards" for each candidate country. They are your single best source for detailed, factual assessments of progress.

Bruegel & Centre for European Reform (CER): These are two of Europe's top think tanks. Their reports provide sharp, unbiased economic and political analysis on the Balkans.

Balkan Investigative Reporting Network (BIRN): For a dose of reality, BIRN offers incredible on-the-ground journalism that uncovers the corruption and reform challenges that official reports sometimes downplay.

Frequently Asked Questions About EU Enlargement

It’s easy to get tangled in the web of EU enlargement in the Balkans. There are a lot of moving parts and decades of history to consider. Let's break down some of the most common questions to give you the clear, quick facts you need to build a stronger case in committee.

Is EU Enlargement Still a Priority?

Absolutely. In fact, it's more of a priority now than it has been in years. After a long period of what many called "enlargement fatigue," Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine was a major wake-up call for Brussels.

The EU now sees bringing the Western Balkans into the fold as a strategic imperative. It’s no longer just a policy preference but a crucial move to lock in stability on its own doorstep and push back against the growing influence of rivals like Russia and China. This renewed focus is the driving force behind new programs like the €6 billion Growth Plan.

Why Is the Process Taking So Long?

Joining the European Union is a marathon, not a sprint. It’s an incredibly demanding journey, and the slow pace usually comes down to a few critical factors:

Rule of Law Reforms: This is the big one. Candidate countries have to undertake deep, often politically painful, reforms to their justice systems to root out corruption and organized crime. The EU isn't satisfied with new laws on the books; it wants to see a solid track record of them actually working.

Bilateral Disputes: Any single EU member can hit the brakes on a candidate's progress over a bilateral issue. The long-running dispute between Bulgaria and North Macedonia is a classic example of how disagreements over history and identity can completely stall the accession process for years.

The Unanimity Rule: Every single major step, from officially opening negotiations to the final vote on accession, requires the unanimous approval of all 27 EU member states. This gives every country a powerful veto, which can be used for reasons that have little to do with the candidate's actual progress.

What Is Gradual Integration or Phased Accession?

Think of it as an "a la carte" path to membership. Instead of the old "all or nothing" model where countries wait years for full membership, the concept of gradual integration is about granting them some of the perks of the EU Single Market much earlier.

As countries hit reform targets, they could gain access to specific benefits, like joining the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA). This makes the long road to membership feel more tangible and rewarding, delivering real benefits to citizens and businesses long before the final accession date.

Can a Country Join the EU Without Solving Border Disputes?

It’s extremely unlikely. The EU has learned some hard lessons from the past, particularly with the Cyprus issue. Importing "frozen conflicts" creates massive headaches and can paralyze the Union’s own decision-making.

Brussels is now crystal clear on this: a comprehensive normalization of relations, especially between Serbia and Kosovo, is a non-negotiable prerequisite for either country to join. The EU simply has no appetite for inheriting unresolved disputes that could destabilize the Union from within. This principle is a cornerstone of the modern EU enlargement Balkans strategy.

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